COVID-19 Medical Demand Forecast
Last Updated: 9/25/2020

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State-wise Demand   Unreported Active Cases  

Introduction

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 began infecting residents of Wuhan, China (8, 12, 38). SARS-CoV-2 causes moderate to severe respiratory symptoms that can progress to severe pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) (37). Despite the extreme disease containment measures taken in China (6), COVID-19 has spread rapidly to numerous countries and evolved into a global pandemic (8, 12). On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a “public health emergency of international concern” (36), and on the following day the United States Department of Health and Human Services declared a public health state of emergency (31).

During the week of February 23, the US Centers for Disease Control (US-CDC) reported new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in California, Oregon, and Washington, indicating the onset of “community spread” across the US (31). Until March 2, the total number of confirmed active COVID-19 cases in the US were 33, with new cases emerging in states of Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Illinois, Florida, New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts (10). In the following two weeks, this number has rapidly increased to 527 confirmed cases on March 9, and then to 4,216 cases on March 16 (10). State of California and New York have respectively declared state emergency on March 4 and 7 (22, 26). The White House declared national emergency on March 13 (33). Thus, major outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic across the US is inevitable. As of March 27, the total number of confirmed cases in the US has exceeded 100,000, surpassing that in China and Italy (10). The US-CDC asserted that the progression of COVID-19 in the US is still in an acceleration phase, albeit the severe situation under status quo (31). This worsening circumstance highlights the urgent need of public health measures targeting on slowing the epidemic progression, and ultimately preventing the collapse of our medical system.

Information Content on this Portal

We use an age-stratified metapopulation model to predict the epidemic dynamics across the 50 US states, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we make forecast on the state-wise statistics, including:

1. The epidemic curve – time evolution of the infected population
2. Medical demands, that is, number of hospital and ICU beds needed
3. The estimated number of unreported active COVID-19 cases

We account for the influence of social distancing by reducing the daily time-of-exposure (and hence the disease transmissibility) of the population targeted with various social distancing practices, such as:

1. School closure (targeting population aged 1-20 years)
2. Business closure (targeting population aged 21-60 years)
3. Distancing elder (targeting population aged 61 years and above)

Update Frequency

The situation of COVID-19 is evolving rapidly, and the forecast accuracy depends heavily on the initial conditions. Therefore, we will update our model and forecast on a weekly basis, by incorporating the latest available confirmed active COVID-19 cases.
Projected Hospital Bed Demand to Supply Ratio

Projected ICU Bed Demand to Supply Ratio